The Government of Jamaica, under the leadership of the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation (MEGJC) and in collaboration with the 2050 Pathways Platform, has developed the Long-term Emission Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS) for 2050. This strategy, crafted in response to the Paris Agreement’s mandate, outlines Jamaica’s ambitious goals to achieve net-zero emissions and enhanced climate resilience by mid-century. As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Jamaica faces significant vulnerabilities to climate change, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and shifting rainfall patterns, which threaten its economy, infrastructure, and public health.

Jamaica’s LTS addresses climate change impacts in key sectors essential for sustainable development. Despite its minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the energy sector’s reliance on imported petroleum products makes it vulnerable to international price fluctuations, affecting fiscal stability. Transitioning to renewable energy, such as solar and wind, would not only reduce emissions but also enhance energy security and economic resilience. In the transport sector, initiatives for electric vehicles, improved public transport infrastructure, and digitalization of activities are underway to reduce pollution.

This project aims to assess the costs and benefits of Jamaica’s LTS at both national and sectoral levels to support decision-making and prioritize key components that maximize climate and development benefits. The analysis will cover financial and non-financial aspects, including social, economic, and environmental benefits, and address key uncertainties and sensitivities. The methodology used is Robust Decision Making (RDM), which has been implemented in countries such as Costa Rica, Peru, Chile, and the Dominican Republic, among others, to design or evaluate decarbonization strategies. This participatory, model-based approach allows for the evaluation of multiple plausible pathways, enhancing stakeholder understanding and facilitating LTS implementation.

The study, led by the MEGJC with support from the 2050 Pathways Platform and executed by Climate Lead Group, seeks to maximize the benefits of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, avoiding carbon lock-in and maladaptation, and ensuring an equitable distribution of costs and benefits across Jamaican society.