The Dominican Republic has joined global efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. As part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the country committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 27% by 2030, with 7% unconditional reduction and 20% conditional on external financing. However, the energy sector, responsible for a significant portion of emissions, faces critical challenges, particularly in the electricity subsector, where reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal, remains high. This study, supported by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), evaluates options for decarbonizing the electricity subsector in an orderly and sustainable manner, contributing to national and global climate mitigation goals.

The study focuses on transitioning to a renewable, resilient, and low-emission electricity system, analyzing future scenarios through an exploratory model of the electricity subsector. The Robust Decision-Making (RDM) method is employed, combining statistical analysis with a participatory process that included consultative workshops and bilateral meetings with over 70 key stakeholders. Key findings highlight the viability and competitiveness of renewable technologies, such as solar photovoltaic and wind, as well as the need for energy storage systems to support these intermittent sources. Additionally, the socioeconomic costs of the transition are assessed, including the reduction of coal dependency and associated benefits, such as job creation and improved energy sovereignty.

The main outcome of the study is a detailed roadmap for decarbonizing the electricity subsector, encompassing policy, technical, and financial recommendations to achieve NDC targets and advance toward carbon neutrality. This work not only provides critical inputs for the country’s energy planning but also offers a replicable model for other nations facing similar challenges in transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy systems.