NDC 3.0 Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis for Costa Rica

Project description

To update Costa Rica’s NDC 3.0 for the 2025–2035 period, Climate Lead Group (CLG) provided robust technical modelling and analytical support. Under the ACCION Clima III programme implemented by GIZ, CLG developed and applied an integrated emissions modeling framework based on the CLEW++ approach, using the OSeMOSYS platform to assess interactions across the energy, transport, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), waste, and industrial processes sectors. CLG led the development of emissions scenarios for the 2025–2035 period, including a baseline trajectory and alternative NDC-related scenarios, based on a representative set of mitigation initiatives identified through national policy instruments and existing reporting frameworks. The analysis focused on quantifying emissions trajectories, estimating the mitigation potential of sectoral initiatives, and ensuring internal consistency and traceability of assumptions, data sources, and results in relation to the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The project also included the preparation of detailed technical reports with results, sectoral breakdowns, and scenario comparisons. These outputs were designed to serve as technical inputs to institutional review, participatory workshops, and subsequent refinement of the NDC 3.0 mitigation component led by national authorities.