Design and Modeling of Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios for GHG Emissions Using OSeMOSYS for Ecuador's Second NDC (2026-2035)

Project description

Climate Lead Group supported the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition (MAATE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in the development of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for Ecuador’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The project provided a robust technical foundation to inform mitigation ambition, support decision-making, and strengthen reporting under the Paris Agreement. The work covered the methodological design, data preparation and calibration, and scenario modeling for five priority sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Waste, Agriculture, and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Using the OSeMOSYS modeling platform, the project developed baseline, unconditional mitigation, and conditional mitigation scenarios for the 2026–2035 period, supported by technical reports, online documentation, and visualization tools. Through this work, CLG contributed to strengthening Ecuador’s analytical capacity for emissions modeling, improving the transparency and consistency of its NDC, and supporting evidence-based climate policy and international reporting commitments.