Financial Assessment of Guatemala's Long-Term Strategy: Using the Financial Panel to Develop Indicators for Decision-Making

Project description

Climate Lead Group (CLG) supported the Ministry of Public Finance of Guatemala (MINFIN) in strengthening its capacity to understand and manage the financial implications of implementing the country’s Long-Term Strategy (LTS) toward carbon neutrality by 2050. The project focused on translating long-term climate ambition into actionable financial insights to support informed public decision-making. Implemented in the context of Guatemala’s Long-Term Strategy update, led by MINFIN in coordination with the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) and the National Planning Secretariat (SEGEPLAN), the project developed a set of key financial indicators and a dynamic financial dashboard tailored to the national context. These tools enable systematic tracking, analysis, and interpretation of critical financial variables to assess the economic feasibility of the climate transition. The project applied a Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach, combining participatory workshops and bilateral interviews with key institutions to identify relevant financial performance metrics, policy actions, data sources, and uncertainties (XLRM approach) affecting long-term climate strategy implementation. Developed in close coordination with sectoral decarbonization teams and the European Climate Foundation, and informed by international best practices such as those developed by the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE), the project ensured technical coherence and avoided duplication. Through the delivery of financial indicators, a user-friendly dashboard, and targeted capacity-building materials, CLG contributed to strengthening institutional ownership and embedding financial analysis into Guatemala’s long-term climate policy planning, supporting a more resilient and economically sound pathway toward carbon neutrality.