Prospective Regional Analysis to Inform RELAC Ambition in the Energy Sector of Latin America and the Caribbean (2024)

Project description

In this context, Climate Lead Group (CLG) developed a regional prospective analysis to support discussions on climate ambition, with a focus on the energy sector of LAC. The work contributed analytical inputs to inform the assessment of decarbonization pathways and the potential evolution of regional renewable energy targets, building on existing national policies and commitments. The analysis developed a regional baseline scenario and a set of alternative decarbonization scenarios aligned with existing national policies, energy plans, and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). Using transparent, publicly available data and prospective energy modeling, the analysis explored trends in electrification, renewable energy deployment, and interactions between electricity generation and total final energy demand, providing a clearer picture of how national trajectories could aggregate at the regional level and under which conditions higher renewable energy penetration could be achieved. In addition, the project identified policy-relevant indicators to monitor progress toward decarbonization at national and regional scales, consistent with international reporting frameworks. These analytical insights informed RELAC discussions on increasing ambition beyond initial benchmarks and on updating regional targets and monitoring approaches. The project also included a regional training workshop to strengthen technical capacities among RELAC countries in the use of prospective energy modeling tools and methodologies applied in the analysis.