Prospective Regional Analysis to Inform RELAC Ambition in the Energy Sector of Latin America and the Caribbean (2025)

Project description

In this context, Climate Lead Group (CLG) aimed to complement RELAC’s generation-focused assessments by estimating the transmission and storage infrastructure needed to accelerate renewable integration and electrification across member countries. CLG evaluated transmission expansion needs across the region. Using an OSeMOSYS expansion model for 2025–2040 (based on official national and regional data), it compares a Business-as-Usual (BAU) pathway with a National Determined Contribution (NDC) pathway that reflects climate commitments and RELAC ambitions. Results show the NDC scenario surpasses RELAC’s 2030 renewable targets and drives a major system shift by 2040, requiring substantially higher grid expansion and storage deployment than BAU, delivering lower long-term unit system costs (USD/MWh), and cutting power-sector CO₂ emissions by nearly 40% versus BAU. While initially conceived as a technical analysis, the study evolved into a high-impact policy tool, informing regional commitments on electricity grid investment and supporting coordinated action to enable large-scale renewable energy deployment.