Support for CCS/CUR in Data Analysis for a Report on the Fiscal Impacts of Electric Mobility Transition in Uruguay by 2050

Project description

Climate Lead Group (CLG) supported the Government of Uruguay, in collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in assessing the fiscal and distributive impacts of transitioning to electric mobility. With transport accounting for more than half of the country’s energy-related emissions, the project addressed the need to understand the economic implications of large-scale electrification as part of Uruguay’s decarbonization strategy. Using an OSeMOSYS-based modeling framework combined with Robust Decision Making (RDM), the project analyzed long-term transition scenarios to 2050, integrating fiscal and distributional variables into the assessment. CLG also created data visualizations for policy-making; and developed a technical manual for future replication. Results showed that while full electrification could reduce tax revenues by over 50%, total vehicle fleet costs would decrease significantly. Through this project, CLG provided clear, evidence-based insights to support policy design, highlighting the need for compensatory fiscal mechanisms to ensure a fair and sustainable transition.